[Jmacq1]

These figures do indeed have a high chance of pegwarming. Despite the relative success of Iron Man 2, Thor, and Captain America in theaters, the toylines have pegwarmed pretty hard. Likewise, due to IM2 pegwarming, Thor and Captain America got much smaller lines. Now with even those smaller lines pegwarming, it'll carry over to Avengers, resulting in a much smaller line than anyone is expecting. This isn't going to be "Marvel Universe 2." More like "The Core Avengers" (But whichever ones have the misfortune of being available in waves past the second will only be available through internet sellers...good luck tracking down those Hawkeyes and Black Widows!) and maybe Loki and a couple bad guy troops." We'll get the same vehicles from Iron Man 2 and Captain America repainted a third time into Avengers/SHIELD color schemes. I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't even a "comic series" for the Avengers toy line, just as there wasn't for Thor.

Want further proof that box-office success doesn't equal toy sales? The Avatar toys flopped hard, and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull was the #3 grossing movie of the year it came out, but its' toys flopped too.

Beyond that, the Avengers is not likely to be the uber-mega-smash hit that many seem to think it will be. I would say at best it performs as well or a little better than the first Iron Man movie. The audience for the Marvel movies is not cumulative...it's overlapping. A large number of the same people are going to Iron Man, Captain America, and Thor, so it's not like you can add up the grosses of each of those movies and say "see how much money the Avengers will make!" Plus, there's the ever-present concern that it won't live up to the hype, which could result in a serious backlash.

Avengers does have one thing going for it though: Not much competition (especially in the "superhero" arena) in its' release window (The Dark Knight Rises comes out about 3 months later, well after Avengers will have made most of its' money). I have little doubt that as a movie it will do well...I just highly doubt it's going to be "one of the biggest action movies of all time." In fact, I bet it won't even be the biggest action movie of the summer its' released (that title likely falling to The Dark Knight Rises).

And there's the wildcard of the Spider-Man reboot as well. As much as fans are pooh-poohing it, the past movies have made a ton of money, and general audiences may well show up in droves.