[todigandbedug]

Quote:

Originally Posted by t1dc

what? 20K more? no way they'd sell through that many. No way.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skoob

I know companies keep this kind of business intelligence close to their chest, and rightly so, but let's play with some extremely conservative numbers: if just .001% of the 321,000.000 people in the United States of America are toy collectors, and if .001% of those are willing to shell out nearly $100 for this figure, that brings exactly 321 immediate sales.

Considering how quickly the figure sold out at many prominent online retailers, and the loony prices being demanded in the secondary market, bearing in mind the popularity of Frank Miller's original story, and barring deeper market analysis, I would expect sales of at least 30,000 figures.

I'm inclined to agree with t1dc. I understand your logic and math, and I would agree with it completely were this an initial production run. Sure, your numbers are, as you said, very conservative, but apart from saying you're being conservative, you don't really explain the jump from 321 immediate sales to 30,000 expected sales. That's a huge difference. That's a jump from 1 in a million people making a purchase to 1 in 10,000 people making a purchase. And I agree that that would be a very plausible number were this an initial production run, but given that most of the demand was already satisfied by the initial run, I would be very surprised if there were still that many people clamoring for one of these. I know you're using secondary market prices as an indication for your case, but if I recall correctly, my Batman directly from Mezco costed me something like $75 after shipping and the standard gray and black version is only going for $99 on eBay currently. If there were 30,000, or even 1,000 people desperately, or even mildly, still wanting one of these, I think the current markup would be more than a measly $25, which is just 25% more than the original cost. But who knows, I could be completely wrong. Like you said, we have no idea what the original production numbers were, so it's difficult to say.