Will Star Wars toys go nuts this winter?
 

I keep hearing from people trying to sell me stuff that they predict Star Wars toys are going to go INSANE! I can't help but think that everyone who is going to collect star wars toys already is doing so.

But I just wondered what you guys thought.

I'd say tread lightly. Whenever there is a new Star Wars film releasing, there will always be an onslaught of products coming out, with people claiming that this round of toys will be the biggest and best ever.

Fast forward a few years, and you will probably be finding them at deals like 2 for 5 dollars at swap meets and toy shows by people who went all in. This is especially true if the new movie turns out to be a dud.

Having remembered how much of a craze the toys for Episode 1 generated, as well as how disappointing the film actually was, I know I will be holding off this time around, if anything grabbing a new stormtrooper or two and maybe a Captain Phasma or Kylo Wren. After that, I will probably be holding tight until the movie comes out so I don't suffer from the buyer's remorse I did the first time around. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...shame on me.

I will also only be buying lightly in case the movie disappoints. I don't care about future value I just don't want a bunch of toys from
a bad movie. Chewbacca and the first order Stormtrooper are the only two I'll get before the movie, maybe Phasma too if they reveal her. I am still super skeptical about the movie itself that way if it's bad I won't be too let down but if it's good I'll be pleasantly surprised, I can't handle another Phantom Menace level drop. Having said that I get fairly optimistic when new behind the scenes stuff gets shown for this one. I am worried about Disney's desire to pump out spin-offs because it could take away the special quality of a new Star Wars movie coming out. For comparison when Iron Man came I was blown away with anticipation and excitement, now Marvel movies come out like clockwork with two a year and soon it'll be three. I still look forward to them but it is a very different kind of anticipation.

The assertion that "Star Wars toys are going to go INSANE" presumably refers to sales and/or speculation in the secondary market. I agree that most of the buying market for Star Wars merchandise is already fully engaged with the mass merchandising hype machine. The (conveniently) leaked lists have given us a pretty clear idea of what will hit store shelves everywhere on Force Friday. If you see anything in those lists that you think will appeal to a broad base of collectors and be limited in quantity or availability in some regions, then I suppose there might be opportunities to speculate, but bear in mind that production runs for everything you see number well into the hundreds of thousands, if not millions. And many retailers are struggling already, so expect the advertising hype machine to ramp higher just as shelves are restocked during the lead-up to Black Friday. Clearance discounts should abound next year, and they should be deep, as consumers are drowning in debt already so will need special motivation to pick something up post-hype.

Pickings are slim right now for my collector niche, figures in the 6"-7" range. I've been cherry-picking what I want from the existing Star Wars universe online. The average resale price+shipping for Black Series figures already released seems to be hanging around the $50.00 mark, more for favorites like Darth Vader. Overall, speculation for these figures seems to be cooling. The number of absurdly high listings is certainly trailing off. Whereas some wealthy twit previously paid more than two grand for the new First Order Stormtrooper, you can get that figure now for about $150.00. Prices will keep coming down generally as new stuff hits store shelves.

I agree 100% with the others above who say value over time depends entirely upon quality of the new movies, and I share their worry in that regard. J.J. Abrams is a shallow storyteller. His work in Star Trek was good helter-skelter roller-coaster fun, but that's all. There was none of the character and relationship development that gave old Star Trek its charm. Theatres are saturated already with propaganda, CG effects, lens flares and lame one-liners, and they're a poor substitute for good storytelling. Unfortunately, the Star Wars spoilers I've seen thus far suggest more of same. Let's just hope that some lessons have been learned. It bodes well that he seems resolved to dispense with continuity with respect to the Hayden Christenson prequels. (For that, bless him.) If the movies are good, sympathetic identification will motivate people to buy new artifacts from the movie experience. If the movies are great, then yeah, Star Wars toys could go "INSANE." It all depends on the movies.

Part of the reason those older toys are going for next to nothing is because Hasbro has put out numerous updates over the years. Even the POTF2 figures from the original trilogy aren't worth much. Why buy an old 5 POA figure with questionable likeness when there is probably an updated figure hanging on the pegs right now that is better in every way.

As for the new movie figures, I'm actually interested to see if anyone besides the scalpers show up late at night like people did for the Ep. I figures back in 1999.

I am totally not sure, us as grown adults this is a big deal but to little kids?

I think I'll be going to the midnight event for Force Friday because I don't want to lose out to scalpers, I don't expect there to be so little on the shelves that just a few scalpers could get them all but it's something I'm worried about and since I don't have anywhere in particular to be on Friday itself I think I can do the midnight thing on Thursday. I am a little glad that I'm not looking at any of the three main characters' figures since I get the feeling that Kylo Ren is gonna be the one that most scalpers aim to get for their evil goals.

But he's not only available in multiple assortments (and probably more), but JediTempleArchives reported that he was among a half dozen or so figures Hasbro is actually going to offer full cases of to those that want them.
Scalpers may well have their field day on Friday, but long term? Kylo Ren won't be hard to get and will readily available within a few weeks once the hype cools a bit.

That and in regards to Potf2, EVERYONE bought them up in anticipation for a value increase. A speculator boom not unlike what happened with comic books just a couple years before.
By and large, I don't really expect to see that situation repeated here.

In a couple places, maybe, but I went to Midnight Madness in 2005 and 2008, and in different regions, and really? Nobody really cared THAT much, and I don't see the same reaction this time around (especially with that shadow Episode I cast over the whole thing).


I generally agree that the quality of the film and how it connects to kids will be a HUGE element of how toys ultimately do (though, keep in mind films like Transformers which connected HUGE with kids, despite mixed/poor reaction from critics and fans). But until the film hits, I expect the line to do well, if for no other reason than product will actually be AVAILABLE in ways we haven't seen from the brand in almost 3 years. Broadly, I think the general market (ie, kids and non-hardcore fans) is somewhat starved for product, which makes the inclusion of legacy stuff like Darth Vader and Boba Fett a wise decision.

I'm really expecting sales to mimic (within the caveat that the market is a LOT different than it was in 2005) the general trends of Episode 3, barring a huge response to the film itself. Meaning stuff will be readily available, new product will cycle in fairly decently, and while a good bit might end up on clearance, there won't be a massive backlog on retailers. Of course, some of that will depend heavily on whether retailers over order this line, something Hasbro really can't control.

I would like your opinion as a collector, looking at the Force Friday catalogue, which is now fairly widely available online.

Based on the design alone, without watching the movie, do you see anything in there right now that you feel strongly motivated to buy? Is there something that 'grabs' you and makes you think, "I definitely want that?"

I was out there then...and had fun...but somewhere between then and now i got burnt out on star wars...
aside from the black series 6" fett and ig88...i haven't purchased a SW fig in yearrrrrs...(and really want to sell a large portion of what i have)

i'm going to go to the Force Friday for the same reason this year...for fun...i'm sure i will pick up an item or 2 (or 3 or 4) depending on how they look...i can always hold on to the receipt and take back what i don't want later.

Plus i'll be going to the TRU in time square in NY...that's supposed to be the hub for all the madness...shit i remember going there for the xbox unveiling and buying Halo that night (not XBOX1 or XBOX360,,,XBOX!!)..Bill Gates himself was there that night..good times..

I went through it last week or two, and nothing really stood out to me as "Gotta have it enough to stand outside a toystore in the middle of the night." But, I will wait for the micro machines and titanium's to go on clearance, then i'll buy them.

Force Friday seems like it's going to be a bust, since none of the participating retailers are going to have any exclusives available, like they had back in '05 for the midnight release of the Ep. III figures.
I'll still probably check out a Wal-Mart or two, because I typically do my figure hunting between 11pm-2am anyways. Might as well check out what's available, since the event has already been on my calendar for months anyways :p

However, as far as Star Wars figures "going nuts", my prediction is that, due to the potential presence of large quantities of Star Wars figures in stores again, those pesky 6" Black figures that have been such a hassle to track down will now be available in abundance.

Anybody remember when Hasbro relaunched Marvel Legends back in 2012, and after the first initial waves, they became increasingly tougher to find ?
The Deadpool, Hit Monkey, and Rocket Raccoon waves were practically impossible to find in my area.
Jump ahead to 2014, when Hasbro started marketing Legends as movie tie-in merchandise, and now, Legends are effortlessly easy to track down in stores. Even the so-called "hard-to-find" figures, like Black Widow, Carnage, and Rocket Raccoon were eventually plentiful.

I'm hoping that the Black series is about to enter an era analogous to the current "Infinite Series" era of Marvel Legends, where, due to the excitement surrounding Ep. VII, stores will actually begin ordering the Black series in far greater quantities, much like they began doing with Legends nearly two years ago.

This is mostly wishful thinking on my part, but I'd love to see the Black series actually receive widespread and consistent distribution.

they did order in great quantities, its just that they didnt produce characters that alot of collectors and parents demanded. thats why stores are clogged with greedos, hans, leis, lukes, and obi wans.

The new Chewbacca because I think the head sculpt is a lot better than the previous 6" Chewie and the colors look better too. And then the first order Stormtrooper, this look has grown on me a lot since its debut and I've really come to appreciate how faithful it is to the original armor while still maintaining the idea that this is what it'd look like some 30 odd years later. The one thing I still don't care for is the fact that the guns match the uniform with their color scheme, since when do Stormtroopers accessorize?

I'm not very drawn in by the designs of the new characters. While it remains possible that Finn and Rey could end up being totally cool protagonists that are likable and fun, their toys are just fairly normal looking people so far as the world of Star Wars goes. And while it is also possible that Kylo Ren could be a good villain I'm not very awed by his apparel, his mask is pretty neat and very Revan-esque but other than the mask he's just a guy wearing an all covering nondescript black thing with some robes. I get the whole "oh the bad guys need to be dark and ominous," but maybe they could've done something to mix his look up just a little. It's not a bad look, it's just been done so much already that anything different would feel extremely fresh.

That's my take on the 6" figures anyway, I dropped out of the 3.75" line pretty much when they did the Phantom Menace 3D spiel which completely killed all of my local stores' Star Wars areas until the Black Series and by then I had already decided to walk away from the scale except for two figures that I missed the first time around. I'm pretty much just going to the Force Friday midnight thing so that I can get the two figures I want and then be done with figures for TFA until I see the film and can pass final judgement as to whether I get any more or not.

In my area, the handful of stores that actually carry the 6" Black figures usually receive only one or two cases of each wave, and typically they don't even receive every wave.
If the Black series is plentiful in your area, then I'm envious. Around here, the Anakin and Bossk waves were virtual no-shows, and the subsequent IG-88 and Emperor waves were almost as hard to find. Frankly, if it were not for Walgreens, the majority of my collection would most likely have come from Amazon.

same. the newer waves were non existent except for walgreens and maybe a target or two.

IMO you shouldn't collect because a toy (or anything really) is going to make you a profit. If you collect because you love the figure or you love the property behind it you can never go wrong.

I will disagree with that part. Buying classic cars, firearms, rare art, etc can be a solid investment but then it's more of a business that involves something cool you enjoy.

Toys like this, yeah. Stupid to try and play the scalp game or hope for a huge profit some day. The numbers are against you there. Doesn't stop people from trying to find the next big toy item that will be impossible to get come Christmas time. I'm sure there are people that have made plenty of money of Furby or Tickle-Me Elmo because parents were desperate but they are the scum of the Wal-Mart parking lot. In the end they will waste time and money trying to scalp stuff and failing so it all works out.